According to the Economic Transition Scenario presented by BNEF, which envisions a market-driven energy transition without significant policy changes, EVs are poised to displace more than 20 million barrels of oil per day by 2040. This volume surpasses the total oil consumption of the United States for the previous year.
Forecasts show that demand for road fuels is predicted to peak at 49 million barrels per day in 2027, after which a structural decline will set in, leading to a consumption of 35 million barrels per day by 2040, as stated in BNEF’s recent outlook.
Notably, demand for gasoline and diesel for road transportation in regions like the United States and Europe is likely reaching its zenith, while China is expected to hit peak demand in 2024. Other major consumers such as India are anticipated to experience a decline in the 2030s.
The pace of this energy transition could be substantially altered by market interventions. Notably, an escalation in oil prices could render EVs considerably more competitive against traditional combustion vehicles. Recent trends have shown oil prices hitting their highest point this year, prompting consumers and industries to consider alternative energy solutions.
As the globe inches closer to peak demand for road fuels and as EVs continue their ascent, the energy landscape is undergoing a profound transformation that will likely have far-reaching implications for industries, economies, and the environment.
Source: BloombergNEF
