Non-legacy OEMs, including emerging manufacturers and innovative startups, are predominantly focused on BEVs. They see the mature technology, extensive research, and development backing from the passenger vehicle industry as compelling reasons to pursue this path. BEVs have made significant strides in recent years and are projected to dominate the market for alternative fuel trucks in the near term.
In contrast, legacy OEMs like Volvo and Daimler have opted for a dual-pronged strategy that incorporates both BEVs and FCVs. While they acknowledge the progress of BEV technology, they also recognize the potential of hydrogen fuel cells in the long-haul trucking sector. By investing in both technologies, these OEMs aim to future-proof their offerings and ensure flexibility to adapt to evolving market demands.
Hydrogen fuel cell technology is still in its early stages compared to BEVs. However, it offers certain advantages such as longer distance ranges and reduced refueling time. Legacy OEMs believe that once FCVs mature and infrastructure expands, they will become a more viable option for long-haul operations.
While the trucking industry’s future remains uncertain, the dominance of BEVs in the short term seems likely. Forecasts indicate that by 2030, around 40% of new medium-duty and heavy-duty trucks sold in Europe will be battery electric. However, the long-term scenario may witness a shift towards hydrogen fuel cells as the technology advances and addresses current limitations.
Source: Truck Electrification — Profit Booster or White Elephant? | Arthur D. Little
